This Sunday afternoon’s two playoff games (two of the final three games of the 2024 NFL season) are incredibly compelling. Obviously, Bills at Chiefs (on CBS, of course) is just another monster matchup between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. It needs very little introduction and you don’t have to be Don Draper to convince anyone to watch it.
But Commanders at Eagles is also pretty special, particularly for the Sunday night main course appetizer at KC. Jayden Daniels is a rookie playing in a conference title game against a hated division rival with a chance to turn back the clock and send Washington to the finals. Super Bowl for the first time in a long time.
Eagles fans will probably still accuse me of hating their team if I pick against them, and that’s fine. Chiefs fans might as well, and that’s fine too. Honestly, I think both games could go either way. There’s something intriguing about a Super Bowl between the Chiefs and Eagles, as Andy Reid faces his old team for the second time in three years.
However, there’s also something fascinating about remembering the nostalgia of the early ’90s, when Buffalo and Washington met in the Super Bowl, with 1991 being Washington’s last appearance, and the Bills making it (and losing) twice more in a row after that.
Has Fox foreseen this possibility? I’m not sure how many people remember, but in the ’90s Fox decided to do an alternative halftime show to what the NFL was producing and turned on comedy sketches between the second and third quarters despite not showing the game. It forever changed the way the halftime show works. Can we bring back Jim Carrey doing parodies of Fire Chief Bill for this year’s halftime show? Please, my childhood begs you.
Anyway, let’s get to the picks and best bets for these games and get ready to enjoy the few minutes of football we have left this season.
NFL Playoff Picks: Predicting Bills-Chiefs AFC Championship Winners, Commanders-Eagles NFC Title Game
Juan breech
The choice: Commanders (+6) in Eagles
This seems like too many points with a banged up Jalen Hurts. I know the Eagles quarterback returned from what could have been a serious leg injury and I know he did some smuggling to both sides after he got hurt. That may have been designed to keep the Rams defense honest. He may very well be limited as a running back, which dramatically changes what the Eagles do on offense. And Jayden Daniels is just SPECIAL, man. That guy doesn’t flinch under pressure. He is the first rookie quarterback without a top-five scoring defense to reach the conference championship. Kliff Kingsbury has been putting together some great game plans. Dan Quinn has been in this place before. There are enough playmakers for Washington to score against Philadelphia… they just have to keep Saquon Barkley from going completely crazy, keep him close, and hope to pull off the upset. It’s more likely/plausible than you think. Jayden and the Commanders also have great backdoor potential here, and could sneak into the end zone late to cut this to six points, like the Rams last week.
Dyami Brown 3.5+ receptions (-130)
Brown has been a huge help in the postseason, stepping up and becoming the No. 2 receiver in this offense for Daniels. The fourth-year receiver out of UNC was generally viewed as something of a gadget and/or solely a deep threat, with Olamide Zaccheaus really taking on the No. 2 receiver role behind Terry McLaurin. But over the last month, Brown has been an integral part of this offense. He has four or more targets in every game since early December, culminating in an explosive (revenge?) game against the Lions and, apparently, Amon-Ra St. Brown, last week when he was targeted eight times and got away with it. with six receptions for 98 yards. That built on his Wild Card weekend performance when Brown caught all five of his targets for 89 yards and the Commanders’ first score of the game. The guy has turned a corner in a contract year and should be in line for another big performance against Philadelphia with all the attention on McLaurin and his quarterback’s legs.
The choice: Bills (+2) at Chiefs
Yes, we bet against Patrick Mahomes. No, it doesn’t feel good. But it might be time for the Bills to finally overcome something like (to borrow another ’90s reference) Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls needed a lot of chances to finally overcome the Bad Boy Pistons before breaking through and winning a title. The Bills aren’t playing fireworks football right now, but they are playing smart football and haven’t turned the ball over lately. Josh Allen has to believe he was snubbed for the MVP award based on All-Pro voting and I expect another extremely clean game for the superstar quarterback. The Bills offensive line is probably the most unsung unit in the entire NFL – they have been extremely dominant all season and Buffalo’s running game under James Cook has been excellent this season. The Chiefs have had a bit more breakouts against the run lately. I would expect the Bills to take full advantage and try to turn this into a fight where Mahomes needed to be perfect on a limited number of drives to win. The Bills need to get lucky on the defensive injury front as some guys can play and I would never be surprised if the Chiefs won. But this game should come down to whoever has the last ball (assuming it’s more than 12 seconds anyway, jeez) and I think Buffalo finally gets it done.
Best Bet: Josh Allen Anytime TD (-115)
It seems like Allen is keeping things a little closer to the vest, although I have a feeling he really uses his legs in this game. In his career against the Chiefs in the playoffs he has three games, with seven carries for 88 yards, 11 carries for 68 yards and 12 carries for 72 yards. He generally activates his legs more often in the playoffs and when things go wrong against the Chiefs, he becomes a flat-out second-string running back. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some early designed quarterback runs, particularly since the threat of Allen running only opens things up even more for Cook. And when they get to the goal line in this game, I expect more of what we saw against Baltimore: Allen holding the ball and running toward the end zone because it feels like the safest yard or two in football, behind only Philly Tush. Push. This number does not yet reflect his goal line usage.