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André Snellings, ESPN
The Boston Celtics entered Friday with the lowest odds (+200) to win the NBA championship in ESPN BET.
But should the Celtics really be the favorites? Although the Celtics have played well overall this season, there are two teams that have clearly been better during the first half. The Celtics currently have as many losses at 28-12 as the Thunder (34-6, +250 to win) and Cavaliers (34-6, +750 to win) combined. In fact, after 40 games, both the Thunder and Cavs are on pace to win 70 games. Each.
The Celtics enter Friday night’s game against the Orlando Magic having lost three of their last five games and six of 12. Those last three losses have come by a combined 43 points and each loss by at least 13 points, including the rout given them by the Raptors 10-31 on Wednesday.
Why are the Celtics still favorites to win?
Some of this is inertia. The Celtics won last season’s championship in fairly routine fashion. They won the Eastern Conference by a whopping 14 games and were seven games ahead of the Thunder in the West for the best record in the NBA. They weren’t really challenged in the playoffs either, winning 16 of 19 games on their way to the title. They then won 16 of their first 19 games in dominant fashion to start this season and the narrative was established that they were the class of the NBA.
Because for the past month and a half, as the sports world has made its way to the end of the NFL season and the College Football Playoffs, the mentality that the Celtics are still “champions in waiting” has persisted. ..largely under the radar. No one really talked about them much, allowing their championship aura to remain intact until their recent matches.
Offense: an excessive dependence on the triple
So now people are paying a little attention. And if you look closer, there are some warning signs for these Celtics. They led the NBA in team offensive rating last season (123.2 points per 100 possessions). They still have the third-best offense in the NBA this season at 119.7 points per 100, but they are the only NBA team that shoots more from behind the arc (49.3 3PA) than inside the arc (41.6 2PA) in every match. When threes go in, they can bomb teams off the court. But against quality defenses, or when it’s simply a cooler night to shoot, the Celtics currently don’t have a balanced enough offense to be able to win those games.
And they just aren’t shooting as efficiently from deep, ranking 15th in the NBA with a team 3-point percentage of 36.2%. As a result, the East-leading Cavaliers are only making 1.7 fewer 3-pointers per game than the Celtics (16.2 3PG vs. 17.9 3PG) even though the Cavs are taking nearly nine fewer attempts per game ( 40.5 3PA vs. 49.3 3PA). The Cavs have much more balance, with two star-caliber big men in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, in addition to their two star guards, Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. As a result, they nearly match the Celtics’ three-point volume, but they also have the NBA’s best shooting percentages from both inside (58.6 2P%) and outside (39.9 3P%) of the arc.
Defense: The Thunder is better
And on the other end of the floor, the Celtics have fallen from third in the NBA in defensive rating last season to seventh (110.8 points allowed per 100 possessions), while their main competitor, the Thunder, dominates the league in defense. Their defensive rating of 103.6 points allowed per 100 possessions is nearly four points better than the second-place Magic and seven points better than the Celtics.
The Thunder have maintained their dominant defense despite constant injuries to one or both of their big stars at the same time. Chet Holmgren was one of the NBA’s leading shot blockers (2.6 BPG) before injuring his hip in 10 games, and Isaiah Hartenstein has been one of the NBA’s leading rebounders (12.2 RPG) in 24 matches that have been played between them. injuries. But the Thunder haven’t had their two big men together at any point, and they throttled the Cavaliers on Thursday night despite not having either of their big men.
Futures angles
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SGA’s 40-point game propels Thunder to beat Cavs
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 18th 40-point game leads the Thunder to a dominant victory over the Cavaliers.
Many do not believe that what happens in the regular season matters, that only the playoffs count. And until the playoffs begin, the only memory people have of the Celtics is their dominant run to the championship. But the Cavaliers (+750) and Thunder (+200) are built to play with a style and effectiveness that has historically been better in the playoffs than what the Celtics have shown us this season with their reliance on making 3-pointers.
While the Celtics have earned their spot as a top-three championship contender this season, their current odds don’t make them a good future value compared to the other two. The Thunder are in the West, where there is no other dominant team this season, so they have a clearer path to the championship than the Celtics, and because they share a conference with the Cavaliers, Boston would potentially have to go through Cleveland. and Oklahoma City to win the championship.
The Thunder and the Cavaliers are the best betting values
Given this path and still having higher odds, the Thunder are a better value at +250 than the Celtics are at +200. Meanwhile, the Cavs may not have the experience of the Celtics, but they have maintained their dominance long enough to be at least co-favorites in the Eastern Conference. However, they are getting a lot more juice than the Celtics right now, making them the best value among the top three championship contenders.
