The Houston Texans will attempt to dethrone the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs when they meet in a 2025 NFL Divisional Round matchup on Saturday. Houston advanced in the 2025 NFL playoff standings with a 32-12 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, while Kansas City is coming off a first-round bye. The Texans (10-7), who won the AFC South, are 5-4 on the road this season. The Chiefs (15-2), who won their ninth consecutive AFC West crown, are 8-0 at home. When ranking who will win Kansas City vs. Houston, the latest Chiefs vs. prediction Texans calls for cloudy skies, 10 mph winds from the northwest and temperatures in the 20s. Almost 80% of the public is over.
Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are nine-point favorites in the latest Texans vs. Chiefs from the SportsLine Consensus, 1.5 more than the first game, while the over/under for total points scored is 41.5, one less than the initial line. Kansas City is a -552 moneyline favorite (risk $552 to win $100) after opening at -340, while Houston is a +410 underdog (risk $100 to win $410) after opening at +275. Before making any Texans vs. Chiefs, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting tips from SportsLine’s proven computer model, as well as everything else SportsLine has to help you crush your NFL picks.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the Divisional Round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs with a hot streak of 31-15 betting on the NFL’s highest-rated picks this year, an astonishing 67% success rate. Longer term, he has a 211-143 streak on top-rated NFL picks dating back to the 2017 season and a 65-36 streak on top-rated NFL picks dating back to Week 7 of 2022.
The model has also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the last six years in straight NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who follows sports betting and betting apps could have made strong profits.
In addition to the model picks for this game, you can get AI props, Las Vegas expert picks, DFS Optimizer lineups, and everything you need to crush your NFL Wild Card Weekend bets. Go to SportsLine now to see it all.
Now, the model has set his sights on Texans vs. Chiefs and just set their NFL picks and predictions. You can head over to SportsLine now to check out model picks. Here are several NFL odds and NFL betting lines for Chiefs vs. Texans:
- Difference between Texans and Chiefs: Chiefs -9
- Texans vs. Chiefs over/under: 41.5 points
- Texans vs. Money Line Chiefs: Texans +410, Chiefs -552
- HOU: Texans are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games
- KC: Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games
- Texans vs. Picks Chiefs: See the picks at SportsLine
- Texans vs. Chiefs: FuboTV (Try Free)
Why the Chiefs can cover
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has completed 392 of 581 passes (67.5%) for 3,928 yards and 26 touchdowns with 11 interceptions and a rating of 93.5. He also carried 58 times for 307 yards (5.3 average) and two touchdowns. In last month’s win over the Texans, he completed 28 of 41 passes (68.3%) for 260 yards and a touchdown. He also carried five times for 33 yards and a score.
Tight end Travis Kelce is his favorite target. In 16 games, he caught 97 passes for 823 yards (8.5 average) and three touchdowns. He had nine explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 38, with 340 yards after the catch and 46 first down conversions. See which side to choose here.
Why the Texans can cover
Second-year quarterback CJ Stroud completed 22 of 33 passes (66.7%) for 282 yards and a touchdown with an interception in last week’s Wild Card win over the Chargers. During the regular season, Stroud completed 63.2% of his passes for 3,727 yards and 20 touchdowns with 12 interceptions and a rating of 87.0. He also carried 52 times for 233 yards, including two explosive runs of 20 yards or more, with a length of 25.
The running game is powered by veteran running back Joe Mixon. In the win over the Chargers, he carried 25 times for 106 yards (4.2 average) and a touchdown. In 14 regular season games, he carried 245 times for 1,016 yards (4.1 average) and 11 touchdowns. He had eight explosive plays of 20 or more yards, including a long one of 59, with 52 first down conversions. Including the postseason, he has surpassed the 100-yard mark in eight games in 2024-25. See which side to choose here.
How to make picks between Texans and Chiefs
The model overshoots, calling for 45 total points, and also says that one side of the spread cashes out in more than 50% of simulations. You can only get the NFL model picks at SportsLine.
So who does the Texans win against the Chiefs on Saturday and which side of the spread wins more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texans vs. Chiefs jump, all from the advanced model that goes well over $7,000 on your NFL picks, and find out, and don’t forget to unlock AI accessories, expert in Las Vegas. picks, DFS Optimizer lineups and all the other tools to crush your picks at SportsLine.
